The luxury landscape has shifted tectonic plates. Amid a global climate of rising tariffs and inflationary pressures that have sent primary market prices spiraling, Rebag’s sixth annual Clair Report, released December 10, 2025, outlines a startling new economic reality: the handbag is no longer merely an accessory—it is a hedge. Analyzing millions of data points from the trailing twelve months, the report reveals that while Hermès has aggressively reclaimed its dominance with a staggering 138% value retention, a quiet insurgency is underway. The Row, the minimalist house founded by Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen, has officially entered "unicorn" territory, signaling a profound cultural pivot from logo-mania to investment-grade understatement. In a year where retail prices have become prohibitive for many, the secondary market has cemented itself not as a discount bin, but as a $56 billion safe haven for the astute collector.
The Return of the King: Hermès Reclaims Hegemony
For the past few years, the resale narrative has been a fragmented battle for the top spot. However, the 2025 data is unequivocal: Hermès has returned to the throne with absolute authority.
According to the Clair Report, the French house now commands a 138% average value retention, a significant 38% year-over-year leap. This is not accidental. As primary market quotas tighten and "scarcity marketing" reaches fever pitch, the secondary market has become the only liquidity provider for those seeking immediate access.
The crown jewel of this resurgence is the Kelly Mini II. Trading at an eye-watering 282% of its retail value, it has outperformed traditional equities and commodities. The Birkin Sellier (183%) and the Constance (137%) follow closely, reinforcing the notion that structured, heritage silhouettes are the blue-chip stocks of the fashion world.
Industry insiders note that this surge is inextricably linked to the "quota game." As Hermès makes it increasingly difficult to purchase these items at retail without a substantial "pre-spend" history, the premium buyers are willing to pay on platforms like Rebag reflects the cost of bypassing the waiting list.
The "Unicorn" Insurgency: The Row Validates Quiet Luxury
If Hermès represents the establishment, The Row represents the revolution. For years, the industry debated whether "Quiet Luxury" was a fleeting trend or a permanent market correction. The 2025 data settles the argument.
The brand has achieved a 97% value retention rate, a massive 24% jump from the previous year. In the vernacular of the Clair Index, this elevates The Row to "unicorn" status—a tier previously reserved for heritage giants like Chanel and Louis Vuitton.
This is a vindication of the Olsen sisters' uncompromising vision. By eschewing logos in favor of impeccable materials and silhouette, they have created assets that hold value based on intrinsic quality rather than hype. The implications are vast: the consumer is becoming more sophisticated, prioritizing longevity and "under-the-radar" signaling over the conspicuous consumption that defined the early 2020s.
The Tariff Effect: Why Watches and Jewelry Are Safe Havens
A critical, underreported angle of the 2025 report is the direct correlation between global tariff hikes and the explosion of the hard luxury resale market. As import duties drive up the retail price of gold and precious metals, the secondary market has become an arbitrage opportunity.
Van Cleef & Arpels has seen retention climb to 112%, while Cartier holds steady at 87%. However, the true story lies in horology. Rolex continues to defy gravity at 104% retention, with specific models like the Submariner Hulk trading at 244% of retail value.
Charles Gorra, CEO and Founder of Rebag, emphasized this shift: "Global tariff shifts and evolving consumer behaviors have made 2025 a defining year for luxury resale. Higher primary prices pushed more consumers to the secondary market, reaffirming its stability."
Essentially, the resale market is insulating consumers from the shock of new fiscal policies. When a new Cartier Love bracelet jumps 15% in price at the boutique due to tariffs, the pre-owned market adjusts upward but remains the more attractive entry point.
Nostalgia as an Asset Class
While investment-grade minimalism leads the data, emotion remains a powerful driver of value. The report highlights a massive resurgence in Y2K archival pieces, specifically the Louis Vuitton x Takashi Murakami collaboration.
Search volume for the "Multicolore" collection spiked 986%, with the High Rise Bum Bag trading at 142% retention. This is not merely a fashion cycle; it is the monetization of nostalgia. As the generation that grew up with these icons enters their prime earning years, they are buying back their youth at a premium.
Similarly, the Balenciaga Le City bag and the Celine Phantom are seeing renewed interest, proving that "It Bags" of the past can evolve into vintage staples if they possess enough cultural cachet.
Timeline: The Evolution of Value
- 2015–2023: The Era of Hype. Streetwear dominates; the Hermès Birkin begins its steady climb, outperforming the S&P 500 with a +92% resale increase over the decade. Rebag launches the Clair index in 2019 to bring transparency to an opaque market.
- 2024: The Pivot. Goyard briefly overtakes Hermès in retention metrics; The Row and Miu Miu begin their ascent as consumers tire of "loud" luxury. Rebag introduces membership tiers to capture high-volume collectors.
- 2025 (Present): The Flight to Safety. Tariffs inflate primary prices. Hermès reclaims the top spot (138%). The Row hits 97% retention. Jewelry becomes a hedge against inflation.
- 2026 (Forecast): The Bifurcation. The market splits between "hyper-investment" pieces (Hermès, Patek Philippe) and "fashion assets" (Gucci Softbit, Chanel 25). The total resale market is projected to race toward $360 billion by 2030.
Strategic Forecast: What Lies Ahead
Looking toward 2026, the data suggests a continued contraction of the middle market. Brands that rely on mid-tier pricing without strong brand equity will suffer, while the top of the pyramid will continue to appreciate.
We are already seeing early signals for 2026 "grails." The Gucci Softbit and the Chanel 25 are already trading above 100% retention on the secondary market, indicating that specific new releases can still achieve instant investment status if the supply is managed correctly.
However, the risks are real. As Goyard (132% retention) and The Row gain traction, the counterfeit market—already buzzing on platforms like Reddit regarding supply chain leaks—will likely pivot to these targets. Authentication will become the battleground of the next decade.
Ultimately, the 2025 Clair Report confirms that fashion is no longer just about consumption; it is about portfolio management. In a volatile world, a Birkin in the closet may be worth two in the boutique.
Written by Ara Ohanian for FAZ Fashion — fashion intelligence for the modern reader.
